The NBA Offseason: A Betting Preview

The Dwight Howard signing had a humongous effect on the futures market for who will win the NBA title.

And then it started a trickle-down effect.

On the negative side, the Dallas Mavericks — one of the teams that lost out — went from 20-1 to 45-1, then 60-1, then 70-1.

The Golden State Warriors went up to 35-1.

Let’s now take a look at the NBA futures odds movement (all odd changes courtesy of 5Dimes Offshore Sportsbook) between the dates of June 21st (before any news of Howard to the Rockets) and July 3rd (when news started to trickle in, but no signing was official):

In terms of odds changed for the two weeks listed above, lets take it team-by-team for analysis sake.

When it comes to the Houston Rockets, it is pretty simple, going from 29.5/1 to 19/1 with the preparation of Dwight Howard heading straight for their city was the main reason.

The NBA, compared to other sports, can be greatly affected on a team-by-team basis very easily by just one or two players, especially one of Howard’s magnitude. When it comes to odds, with great anticipation comes great movement, and that is exactly what happened in this instance.

It is very hard to ignore the fact that almost every single team’s future odds got better with time except for Houston, Brooklyn and Cleveland. The reasoning behind the first two teams is written in the so-called Free Agency “box score” with their offseason signings, but when it comes to Cleveland, I believe a sense of separation from them to teams like Washington, Sacramento, Milwaukee and Toronto is what gave the Cavaliers that type of jump.

Knowing that Cleveland will be players in acquiring talent to try to lure LeBron James back to his hometown in next year’s free agency “bonanza” makes Cleveland more of an attraction before the odds moved on June 30th. If you are attempting to look at the future odds as a barometer for wins and success for next season, I would not suggest that strategy. I believe the futures market could be used as a small percentage tool, but win totals are definitely a better strategy, once those become available as we inch closer to the start of the regular season.

As you will see in the upcoming chart for the futures market beyond July 3rd, as long as the Rockets have Dwight Howard, their odds will never even sniff the 29.5/1 they were listed at two weeks before “Superman” came to town.

Here is a list of the NBA odds movement from July 5th to August 2nd, which now takes into consideration almost all of the free agency moves:

As the regular season gets closer and closer and free agency comes to an end, you will start to see more of the public get involved in the NBA futures market “game.”

When this happens, oddsmakers tend to move the odds much closer to where they want and need the action to come in so it can balance it out a bit. When you see the Bobcats and Magic move from 500/1 to 600/1, it probably tells you not one (alright maybe one) single person is holding a ticket on these teams.

On July 10th, when the news became official that forward Josh Smith was agreeing to a four-year contract with the Pistons, and then around three weeks later when Detroit dealt guard Brandon Knight to the Bucks in a sign-and-trade for Brandon Jennings, oddsmakers had to know some futures tickets were going to come in on the Pistons. The question remains: With that much talent, how have they not ducked under the 200/1 mark as of yet?

When I look at the full scope of the league, the answer to me is simple: When you have the Pacers, Bulls and the up and coming Cavaliers in just your division, it is going to be difficult to win games all season long and stay afloat. As of now the best division in the NBA based on the futures odds market is the Southwest division, followed by the Northwest, then the Central. Here are some of the interesting numbers from simply adding up the odds totals from each team and breaking it down by division and then by conference:

Looking at the chart above, the only division in basketball with four teams below the 100/1 barrier is the Southwest division, which cumulatively has the smallest total for futures odds. If you offered a proposition wager on “which division would the NBA Champion come out of,” the Southwest division with the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, Mavericks and Pelicans would definitely be the favorite with the Northwest and maybe Southeast division because of the Heat, coming in a close second. The Eastern Conference currently holds six of the nine teams whose odds are 200/1 or greater, which makes the Western Conference the definitive favorite to see an NBA Champion come from their conference.

If you begin comparing the futures odds from June 21st and August 2nd, the biggest increases come from certain teams who really did not fill particular needs in the offseason and ended up signing guys that will certainly force them to end up in franchise mediocrity.

As I have discussed before, finishing in 9th-12th in your conference is probably the worst possible thing you can do to your franchise based on odds to win a high lottery pick while missing out on the playoffs altogether. For the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been one of the worst team since 1984 in accomplishing this, this offseason did them no help. Milwaukee has only accumulated three top 5 selections since 1984, which puts them at the same exact number as the Pacers, Celtics and Spurs, who have had plenty of playoff success.

The Bucks started the offseason at 105/1 to win it all and now find themselves at 300/1 to win it all. Adding such pieces as Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo, Carlos Delfino and Zaza Pachulia ensure them again a place in the “mediocrity zone.”

If you are looking for one team who has 100/1 odds or better as a good value selection going into the month of August, I would probably recommend a flier on the Minnesota Timberwolves (100/1). A rotation of Kevin Love, Kevin Martin, Nikola Pekovic (restricted Free Agent, will probably re-sign with Minnesota at this point), Derrick Williams, Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea, Chase Budinger and rookies Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad give Minnesota a pretty decent 6-8 man rotation, barring injuries.

The other two teams I would consider fliers on at the above 100/1 mark would be the New Orleans Pelicans (200/1) and the Detroit Pistons (200/1). When you are talking about teams at that level of value, that is purely what I am looking for in a wager…talent.

Oddsmakers are not dumb, these teams are valued at these numbers because it is near impossible to “shock the world” in the NBA because of the amount of games you have to win in the playoffs to do so (16).

It is the reason why you do not see the same disparity of value in the NFL and MLB. I picked the Pelicans and Pistons because I like the moves they have both made in acquiring talent in the offseason, and I think one of the reasons they are valued where they are is because of the injury history of some of the players on these rosters, but that is the risk you have to take when buying that high.

When I look at New Orleans, the thing I do like is the depth they have at the guard position with Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, Tyreke Evans and Anthony Morrow. With Ryan Anderson, Anthony Davis and even Al-Farouq Aminu in the Pelicans’ frontcourt, I would say the only thing they are missing is the veteran type leadership Chauncey Billups will be bringing back to Detroit this upcoming season. Billups will be able to teach rookie Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and even possibly help mentor Brandon Jennings a bit when it comes to improving his shot selection and helping run the Pistons’ offense this year.

If I was asked the question of whose odds currently do not match their talent, my answer would be real simple: The Los Angeles Lakers at 42/1 with Kobe Bryant coming off of a tear of his Achilles and Steve Nash hurt the majority of last season, the odds just do not seem to be reflecting the fact that the Lakers could quickly have a starting five of: Steve Blake, Jodie Meeks, Nick Young, Pau Gasol and Chris Kaman.

I completely understand the upside when you talk about what the Lakers could be, but taking a chance on that given their current odds simply does not do it for me. When you look though in Las Vegas at the Las Vegas Hilton Casino, the Lakers odds to win the NBA Championship there are 100/1 and definitely paint a completely different picture.

At 12.5/1 on this list and approximately 15/1 in Las Vegas, the one wager I would consider making on one of the top teams in the NBA would be the Indiana Pacers.

(RELATED: CHECK OUT CHRIS SHERIDAN’S AUGUST POWER RANKINGS)

With the acquisitions of Chris Copeland, Luis Scola, rookie Solomon Hill from Arizona and C.J. Watson, while only losing Gerald Green, Tyler Hansbrough and Miles Plumlee, I believe the Indiana Pacers have added the necessary pieces to make another deep run.

They have strengthened their bench, added a big asset to their backcourt (Scola) to help David West and Roy Hibbert, and not to mention got back a healthy Danny Granger after playing in just five games last season.

Even if the Pacers decide to trade Granger before the season starts for another player of his caliber or additional assets, the Pacers deep roster will be a force to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference next year.

Evan Abrams writes about basketball gambling for SheridanHoops.com. Follow him on Twitter @Betropolitan..